Where Have I Been

I know it has been a long time since I have posted anything. More than anything the constant losing just beat me down. I didn’t really have anything I wanted to say about what was going on. At times it was very hard to watch. Especially the losing streaks in June and July. I will say though that September was very encouraging for this team. They beat several teams that were playoff bound and the sweep in September helped to nearly keep the Oakland A’s out of the playoffs. Several players made positive impressions in the seasons final weeks.

Rougned Odor was one of these players. September was his best month. He had a .296 BA and .826 OPS, and had more hits and runs in September than any other month. It was clear as the season went along he got more comfortable.  He has established himself in my mind as the 2nd baseman going forward. I know Profar is likely to be healthy come Spring Training, but they both have one season under their belt and in my mind Odor’s season was much better. He made better contact and was very solid defensively. He still needs to continue to get better. He profiles in my mind as a Dustin Pedroia type, a guy who gives maximum effort and his power is generated by his quick swing. I could certainly see him with his left-handed swing and the short porch there in Arlington going for 15-20 home runs when his body matures. Profar we really don’t know. He is coming off of a serious shoulder injury that kept him out all of 2014. He reportedly will be cleared to throw in January. That will still give him time to be ready for camp in March. I think being out all season puts him behind the 8 ball and not having the same level of success that Odor had last year will result in him being sent to Triple-A to start the year. If I was management and Odor is healthy to break camp, I would go with him and send Profar to Round Rock to get at-bats every day. That way he can get comfortable again playing in games. Then he will be ready if someone gets hurt or if you need a better utility player. I think it is more important to get him at-bats every day and be in the field on a daily basis as he works his way back from the shoulder injury.

Derek Holland was another player who came back from injury and looked like the player the Rangers have envisioned since he came to the majors in 2009. With the injury to Yu Darvish he came back and became the staff ace the team needed in September. He came in throwing strikes, being economical with his pitches, and lasting 7 or 8 innings every time out. In the past he would put up those performances but follow it up with performances where he could not get out of the 3rd or 4th inning. He looked as fresh as he has ever looked and gave fans something to look forward to in 2015. A Darvish-Holland one-two punch in the rotation is very formidable. Darvish is very overpowering and Holland is very economical. Those two are the reason I do not expect the Rangers to be major players in the free agent pitching market. There is no reason to overpay to get a James Shields or a Jon Lester to come here when you have Darvish and Holland in the top two spots. To get Shields would also require giving up the number 4 pick in the draft and they are not going to do that.

Now that we are talking about the rotation for next year lets talk about what I think the Rangers should do this offseason. Here is my list of objectives for Jon Daniels and his staff this offseason.

1) Decide who will be the top 4 of your rotation. Darvish and Holland will be one-two, but who else will be in the rotation? I don’t mind a competition for the number 5 spot, but having spots 3 and 4 open will not be good for next years team. I would try hard to bring back Colby Lewis. He is a proven veteran that showed the variety of injuries he suffered from in 2012 and 2013 would not end his career. He is another that got better as the season went along. In April and May he could not get back the 5.2 innings mark, but from July 31st to the end of the season he averaged 7 innings per start. That includes two complete games and one of them being a shutout. Next years team needs that veteran presence and leadership in the rotation. I wouldn’t pay outrageously for him, but I would bring him back. I think you offer a 1 year contract with a easily reached option like 130-150 innings for a second year and make the contract worth about 3 or 4 million and the option year for about 5 or 6 million. I think he wants to come back, but he also wants to test the market while healthy for the first time since coming back from Japan. In the end though the Rangers lack of depth in the rotation and his ties to the area will bring him back for 2015 and possibly 2016. Second, go ahead and make Nick Tepesch your number 4 starter. He has been there for two years now and has gotten better each season. He is a solid number 4 guy who gets ground balls and can provide innings. Then in Spring Training have a camp competition between Nick Martinez, Lisalverto Bonilla, Luke Jackson, and Chi-Chi Gonzalez for the number 5 spot. All of those guys are talented and ready for the opportunity. The good thing is there will be depth this year.

2) Get everyone healthy and have them remain healthy. Just getting back healthy players will cause them to be much better next season. I am expecting them to compete for the division title with the Angels next year. Next season Prince Fielder, Shin Shoo Choo, Jurickson Profar, Engel Beltre, Mitch Moreland, Tanner Scheppers,  and Martin Perez after the All Star Break will certainly help this team. It will give them needed depth in their lineup, bullpen, and bench.

3) Stay on top of Elvis Andrus this offseason. Last offseason the story goes he didn’t do a throwing program and that caused his shoulder to be fatigued in Spring Training and him to miss game. He also came in to camp overweight and both of those things caused him to lose range defensively, steal less bases than ever before, and just overall not have as good of a season. In his exit interview he promised to get a couple of weeks rest and then get after and come into camp in better shape next year. For the Rangers to compete they need an Elvis that is dedicated and in the best shape of his life. He needs to be able to drive the balls into the gaps, cause havoc on the bases, and play gold-glove level defense. He cannot slack off this offseason like last year. He has to be the team leader the Rangers need him to be. 2015 will be year 7 of the Elvis experience and it needs to be the year he takes a step forward offensively and in his role in the clubhouse. Rangers management and coaching staff needs to be checking on Elvis wherever he is and make sure that he is ready for camp in February.

4) As far as a free agent target I have heard talk about Torii Hunter and Michael Morse. I would not mind either of those guys. Hunter might want to finally sign here, since he already lives in the Dallas area in the offseason and is near the end of his career. Hunter could be a good guy to slot into the number two hole in the lineup and he can still hit and he can still field. They are letting Alex Rios go and so they need someone to fill the right field spot and Hunter could certainly be that guy. Morse is a guy who can be a strong right-handed DH. You can platoon him with Mitch Moreland. Moreland can still spell Fielder at first base and play some in the outfield as well. Bringing Morse in gives you a stronger bench and a lineup that will hit for more power. They could also decide that they like Smolinski and put him in right field. He certainly impressed after he came back from injury and will get a look in Spring Training for a starting job.

I think that is it. For the most part just getting healthy will solve a lot of their problems. The Rangers this past season were like the 1997 Spurs that had one terrible season, ended up in the lottery, got the number one pick, and drafted Tim Duncan. The Rangers don’t need to blow it up and rebuild. What the end of the season proved is that they are not far away. The A’s went all in and came up short and will probably rebuild next season, the Mariners still have great pitching but no offense, and the Angels will still be really good. A healthy Rangers team with one or two tweaks will be back in the race in 2015 and with a new energetic manager in Jeff Bannister. I would not be surprised at all to see them back in the playoffs next season.

I will try to write more this offseason as stuff happens. I am still hopeful and still a big time baseball fan. I have been through the good times and the bad time and will never stop believing in my Rangers.

The Future of the Texas Rangers

The 2014 season is about halfway over and for the Texas Rangers it has turned from a season of promise into a lost season due to all the injuries. In all the Rangers have made 20 DL moves this season, 3/5 of their expected rotation is on the DL, their starting and backup first basemen are gone for the season, and numerous other star players and role players have missed time due to injury. 2014 will always be in my mind “the nightmare season” that as soon as it is over will never be spoken of again. It was the year players started getting hurt in the offseason, it carried over into Spring Training workouts and the games, and extended into the regular season. It has felt like the Rangers have not went more than two weeks without having to make a DL move. It has been a valiant effort by Ron Washington and the team to stay as close to .500 as they have, but as of today they are 11.5 GB of the division, and 4.5 GB of the wild card. They are still in the race right now for one of the wild card spots and so the season isn’t completely over, but I have decided instead of dwelling on the present on this blog I will be focusing the next couple of weeks looking into the future.

In the present it looks bleak, the Rangers have players that are hurt or underperforming, they only have a good chance of winning 1 out of every 5 games, and there really isn’t much in the way of reinforcements coming into the team. Despite all of that though the near future looks bright.  They have prospects such as Joey Gallo, Luke Jackson, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Jorge Alfaro, Nomar Manzaro, Ryan Rua, and others that are still developing and on their way up. On the major league club we have seen the promise and potential that Michael Choice, Roughned Odor, Luis Sardinas, Robinson Chirinos, Nick Martinez, and Nick Tepesch have shown. The future looks promising, but these players are not ready yet. They will have their moments, but not sustained and rarely in the late innings. In some ways this feels a lot like 2008 and 2009 in that there were a lot of players who were good, but they did not know how to win yet. They had to spend those two years learning how to win and then in 2010 it all came together. This group of players has to learn how to win together and in order to become winners a team first has to lose. It happens in every sport, it is called the slow build. For the Rangers that is what 2006-2009 was. It was getting the pieces together and then learning how to win. Before the Dallas Cowboys won their last 3 Super Bowls they had to endure seasons of 1-15, 7-9, 11-5, before going 13-3 and winning the Super Bowl. That is where the Rangers are back to right now.

Over the next two weeks leading into the All Star Break I will be writing 5 parts to our future of the Texas Rangers series. The first part will take a look at Joey Gallo. He has been called the most interesting man in the minors by Grantland and so I will be writing part one about him and the expected impact that he will have on this team, when he will arrive, and what type of player he will likely become. The second part will take a look at the top 10 Rangers prospects and their expected arrival time and what kind of impact they will have on this team. The third part will take a look at the moves the Rangers need to make to win in 2015 and beyond. The fourth part will take a look at the young players on the roster right now and what their ceiling is and if they can become long term contributors to the team. The fifth and final part will be prediction for what the 2016 roster will look like. It will be a compilation of the previous four parts and look toward 2016 when many of these players will have made or will make their debuts. Baseball America does something like this in their prospect handbooks every year where they jump ahead 3 years to make their prediction on the starting lineup and rotation. I will do the same to close out this 5 part series.

In conclusion Rangers fans don’t despair. I know that it may be hard to watch this years team and the season cannot get over quick enough, but enjoy it while it is here. Spend the games watching Roughned Odor hit or Nick Martinez pitch and realize that this is the future and while it may not be great now, they will be once they have some more seasoning under their belt. It takes time to grow for young players such as them, but I would expect that as soon as next season they will be back in the hunt for a playoff berth next season and in 2016 I expect to see them back in contention for another World Series berth. Unfortunately 2014 is not 2015 or 2016. The future will be better I guarantee that.

The Cost of Competing

DANIELS

 

In professional sports every team is seeking a window. A window that while open gives them a chance at winning their sports ultimate prize. It could be the Lombardi Trophy, Stanley Cup, World Series, or NBA Finals. General Managers spend their lifetimes trying to acquire enough talent to be able to open that window. Windows normally only stay open for a very short time.  Very few GM’s actually get to open that window. That is why when teams get there they normally overspend in order to maximize that window. They never want to admit that the window is closed or is closing. This takes me to the Rangers and the decisions the front office has made to try to keep the Rangers window open.

Jon Daniels has been the Rangers GM since October of 2005. He spent the first 5 years of his tenure rebuilding the Rangers from the ground up. He rebuilt through shrewd trades, under the radar signings, and through the draft. Instead of moves made to compete immediately he slowly started to acquire more and more talent. He brought in players like Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, and Yu Darvish. All along he said that he wanted to get the Rangers to a point where they could compete every season. He didn’t believe in a window of opportunity. The Rangers made it to back-to-back World Series in 2010-2011 and came within an out of winning the 2011 World Series. Since then the Rangers have gotten farther and farther away from making it back to the World Series. They lost a 5 game lead with 7 games remaining in 2012 and then lost the Wild Card playoff game to the Orioles. Then in 2013 in a season full of injuries they lost a one game playoff to the Tampa Bay Rays. This season just shy of Memorial Day they sit 7 games back of division leaders Oakland.

This takes me to the point of the article. In order to stay in contention teams have to make trades that normally they wouldn’t make. Jon Daniels has made several in-season trades and now this season they are seeing that once full minor league system drained by all that talent that was traded away. It started in 2011 with the Koji Uehara trade that sent Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter to the Orioles. It was a sound trade at the time because the Rangers needed bullpen help, but Uehara did not provide anything and was left off of the World Series roster in favor of Mark Lowe.  In 2012 there was the trade for Ryan Dempster that sent Kyle Hendricks and Christian Villanueva to the Chicago Cubs. The team needed a starter after Colby Lewis went down with an injury, Neftali Feliz had Tommy John, Roy Oswalt and Yu Darvish were not pitching well, and so they traded for Dempster. One thing we saw with Dempster is what we see with most NL pitchers who make the transition to the AL. They do not pitch as well. Dempster in his time here did go 7-3, but with a 5.09 ERA, and in September that ballooned to 5.68 ERA in the month.  The big problem now is that Kyle Hendricks has blossomed in the Cubs organization and is on the verge of being called up. Ryan Dempster is no longer in MLB and was not resigned after the season.

In 2013 they made another trade with the Cubs this time for Matt Garza. They gave up Neil Ramirez, C.J. Edwards, Justin Grimm and Mike Olt to complete the trade. That made sure they got him, but while here Garza continued to be the head case he has been throughout his career. He called people out on Twitter, his behavior was unpredictable on the mound, and his performance just wasn’t what the team thought they would get. He ended up 4-5 with a 4.38 ERA, and allowed 5.02 Runs per 9 innings. The Rangers needed to make this trade because Colby Lewis had not come back, Matt Harrison was out for the season, Nick Tepesch and Justin Grimm were not able to pick up the slack, and they needed a veteran to help them get back to the playoffs. It just did not work either as the Rangers season ended in game 163 to the Tampa Bay Rays. Then this past offseason Daniels really wanted to shake things up. He traded longtime Ranger Ian Kinsler to the Tigers for Prince Fielder, let Nelson Cruz go without a multi-year contract offer, traded fan favorite Craig Gentry to the A’s for Michael Choice, and signed Shin Shoo Choo. Only one of those has really worked out.

Having to trade prospects is the cost of competing. It is what general managers will call a necessary evil, because the here and now is more important than the future. Unfortunately, it doesn’t always work out for the team acquiring the veteran. That is what the Rangers have found out as they have had to trade numerous prospects in order to stay in contention. That is what makes a GM’s job very difficult, weighing the question of whether or not to make a trade, and the future consequences of making that trade. Every GM battles with that decision in the offseason and especially during the month of July. Jon Daniels I am sure did not make any of these trades lightly. He knew what could happen, but he wanted to give his team a chance at getting back to the playoffs. The problem has come this year as the team has faced numerous injuries and no longer has the depth to cover up those injuries. Here is a sobering thought, if none of those trades had been made, here is what the Rangers lineup would look like.

LF Shin Shoo Choo

2b Ian Kinsler

1b Chris Davis

3b Adrian Beltre/ Mike Olt

RF Alex Rios

DH Mitch Moreland/ Mike Olt

CF Leonys Martin

C Robinson Chirinos

SS Elvis Andrus

This is the downside of trying to keep the window open. Does it produce exciting pennant race baseball? Yes it does. Does it bring regret later? It does that as well. Every team that competes for a period of time goes through that and now is the Rangers time to go through it. It may lead to a couple of down seasons, but players like Joey Gallo, Luke Jackson, and Jorge Alfaro are just a year or two away from being ready to contribute. That will give the team the shot in the arm that it needs and the ability to compete for the World Series again.

Rangers Young Guns Continue to Struggle

perez

 

The last two games we have seen one of the questions marks heading into the season manifest itself in a negative way. That question was could the Rangers young starters be relied upon to help this team through these first two months of the season. This month we have seen that the answer is no. Going into opening day the Rangers had 4 young starters in the rotation: Tanner Scheppers, Martin Perez, Robbie Ross Jr., and Nick Martinez. For the first 3 weeks they were good to great. Perez was great to start the season. He started 4-0, and had back-to-back complete game shutouts. Since then, he is 0-3 with higher than a 12.0 ERA. Then yesterday it was revealed that he has been suffering from elbow inflammation and will have to go on the DL. Nick Tepesch will be called upon to replace him when he takes his start on Wednesday. Then you have Robbie Ross Jr. who has not had a good start since April 25th against the Mariners, when he went 6.0 innings only giving up 2 runs. Since then, he has allowed 17 runs in his last 15.1 innings pitched. Overall, he is 1-4 with a 5.04 ERA. Finally, you have Tanner Scheppers who got injured in April, but who may have lost his rotation spot regardless. Tanner could not stay out of the big inning. The Rangers were taking a chance when they entrusted these guys with the keys to the rotation, and so far it just hasn’t worked out.

Out of the 3 I imagine Martin Perez will continue getting chances to start. He has a track record of success as a starter. He pitched well in the second half last year and pitched well for most of April. I imagine throwing the back-to-back complete game shutouts is what caused the elbow injury to flare up. Since those starts he clearly has not been the same. Hopefully they will give Perez as much time as he needs to recover and that when he does come back he will be able to have the same success he had in April. As far as Scheppers and Ross I imagine that they will be back in the bullpen very soon. Washington may have to make a decision and switch roles for Nick Martinez and Robbie Ross Jr. Martinez is stretched out and can easily slide into the starter role. Ross has experience in the bullpen and will be able to pick it up very quickly. Something needs to change. I loved the move to bring up Odor and Sardinas, now it might be time to shake up the rotation. Insert both Tepesch and Martinez. They just need to survive until Derek Holland and now Martin Perez can come back. They need to stop this slide. They are now right at .500 and 4 games back of the A’s. Thankfully the A’s are not playing much better or the deficit would be larger. The Rangers will be starting a 3 game series this week in Houston. The offense is starting to come back around, now it is the rotation’s turn to start pitching better.

Tonight it will be Colby Lewis for the Rangers and Brad Peacock for the Astros. Last time out Colby pitched against the Rockies and gave up 7 runs in 3.1 innings. He became the third starting pitcher to get hit hard in that series. He will be looking for better success tonight against the Astros. Game time is at 7:10.

Rangers win 16-15

Nick Williams hits 9th inning game-tying home run

Wow. Just when you thought it was just another Saturday in Arizona and just another spring training game a 16-15 game breaks out between division rivals Texas Rangers and Oakland A’s. What a comeback by this probably b or c squad Rangers team. The lineup was missing Prince Fielder, Shin Shoo Choo, Alex Rios, Leonys Martin, Adrian Beltre, and Jurickson Profar or 2/3 of the starting lineup. The only players to make the trip that will likely make the trip to Arlington were Mitch Moreland, Elvis Andrus, Geovanny Soto, and JP Arencibia. Still this team of mostly minor leaguers and non roster invitees were able to overcome some pretty awful pitching and come back to win this game. The word unbelievable doesn’t normally get applied to Spring Training exhibition games, but I believe it does apply here. Down 13-6 heading into the 6th inning the team just perservered and came back to win. So lets take a closer look at this game.

Colby Lewis got the start today and was expected to go 3-4 innings depending on his pitch count. Unfortunately for the Rangers he could not get out the 2nd inning. He just did not have his good stuff today. His fastball velocity wasn’t there and he was leaving it up. He also could not get his curveball over the plate. The A’s were just waiting on his fastball and it led to Brandon Moss and Josh Reddick hitting back-to-back home runs in the second and then after loading the bases on a hit-by-pitch of Josh Donaldson that was it. Rafael Perez came in after that and prevented any further damage. Lot of question marks for Lewis after this one. He has said that he is healthy and he has the support of the organization, but they won’t put him on the roster unless he can perform. Today he just didn’t have it.

Nick Tepesch also didn’t have it. He was able to go 3 innings, but he gave up 7 runs in those 3 innings and also 9 hits. So he was very hittable and with this performance he probably ensured that he will be opening up the season in the Round Rock rotation. I actually expect him to be sent down next week sometime. Tepesch is a guy who just needs to work on his out pitch. He has a great sinker and can get ground balls, but he just needs to be able to put hitters away.

After those two guys left it was 13-6 and it was thought that the players would check out and the Rangers would live to fight another day. That is when it got crazy. The Rangers scored 3 runs in the 6th with all of the starters still in. That was highlighted by consecutive 2 out RBI singles by Elvis Andrus and Mitch Moreland. That made it 13-9. Then in the 7th the craziness continued. Washington took out most of his starters at this point. So, of course the Rangers proceeded to score 5 runs with a lineup mostly consisted of guys who will likely not see Arlington. That inning saw Bryan Peterson and JP Arencibia hit consecutive RBI doubles and then Nick Williams and Robinson Chirinos hit consecutive home runs. Just like that it was 14-13 Rangers. From 13-6 to 14-13. The A’s then followed that up with 2 runs in the 7th inning off of Nick Tepesch. That closed the book on Tepesch. Now it is 15-14 and just when you think it has to be over the 9th inning comes around and Nick Williams leads off with another home run to tie the game. Robinson Chirinos then doubles and is replaced by Adam Rosales on the basepaths. Brent Lillibridge then hits a sac fly to give the Rangers the lead and in the bottom of the inning Roman Mendez closes this crazy afternoon and evening of baseball. What a crazy last 4 innings. The Rangers do win. Often times this Spring they have made the comeback but some reliever will blow the game, this time they held on.

Some notable things from todays game.

– Michael Choice continues to rake. After two hits last night against Johnny Cueto he had two hits including a home run today against the A’s. He is getting very close in my mind to locking down that 4th outfield spot. His defense has been great, but his hitting has been a revelation. He is one of those Spring Training surprise stories. He has definitely earned his spot whether or not they give it to him.

-Nick Williams just WOW. 2 at-bats, 2 home runs, and 3 rbi’s It was his first cactus league game. Last season he was playing in the A-ball with Hickory and has no chance to make this team, I don’t even think he is on the 40 man roster. He is a guy who did make an impression on the team and coaching staff I am sure.

-Outside of Colby Lewis and Nick Tepesch the pitching was great. Those two guys combined to give up 13 runs. The bullpen combination of Rafael Perez, Miles Mickolas, Aaron Poreda, Shawn Tolleson, and Roman Mendez threw 4 2/3 innings and only gave up 2 runs. Those guys made it possible for the Rangers to come back. I don’t know whether any of these guys will make the team, I kind of doubt it. They did pitch well today though. Many of these guys will likely just be sent down to either Round Rock or Frisco this season.

Here are some quotes from the participants in today’s game.

First, Colby Lewis.

The outcome wasn’t very good but I felt like I threw some good pitches. I had a lot more action with my slider than I ever have, my changeup … everything felt sharp.

“If I don’t get outs, it’s not very fair for me to make the ballclub over other guys. Even when I was on the roster, I always felt I had to get outs and prove myself. Hopefully I’ll get a couple of more outings to prove myself.”

Nick Williams

It was awesome. It was my first time in a big league game. I’ve sat the bench but never got to play.”

Michael Choice

This spring has been great. I have been working hard in the cages and on my defense in the outfield and to see things go well in the game is a rewarding feeling.”

Countdown to Opening Day: 15 Days

Russell Wilson Day

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  A lot has happened since I have last written. A massive thundersleet snow-ice storm hit Oklahoma City and the Rangers have continued to play games in Arizona. After starting off with a win last Thursday the Rangers have went … Continue reading

The Battle for the Rangers 5th Starter Spot

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The biggest question for the Rangers this Spring Training will be their starting rotation. The question will be who will be their starting 5 once the season starts? It is a question that fans, writers, and bloggers like myself will … Continue reading

Spring Training Day 5 Recap

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Last week pitchers and catchers reported, and now we are to the full squad portions of workouts. It is that time when we find out who is healthy and who is not. Unfortunately for the Rangers the who is not … Continue reading