Texas Rangers: Lucky or Good

Posted on September 1, 2016 by colonelsportsnation

The Texas Rangers won their 30th 1-run game on Tuesday night with a walk-off 2-run home run by Roughned Odor. That is the most in modern MLB history. Their record in the one-run games is 30-8 and if they maintain that winning percentage of .789 it would top what the Orioles did in 2012 when they went 29-9. It is remarkable what this team has done. The Rangers have 39 come from behind victories, 6 walk off wins, and the 30 wins in one-run games. They have a minuscule run differential of +22 which normally means that a team has a winning record, but not the best record in the league. The Rangers are 25 games over .500 for the best record in the American League. This is incredible when looking at the stats. The Blue Jays and Indians are in a virtual tie behind the Rangers, yet they have a run differential of +106 for the Blue Jays, and +94 for the Indians. This team has had to survive poor bullpen work early in the season, pitching injuries in the middle of the season, and at times a slumping lineup in August. Here we are though getting ready to head into September and the Rangers are 8.5 games up on the Astros, and 11.5 games up on the Mariners. They are in line with a strong September to also capture home-field advantage through the entire playoffs. The question that keeps going through my mind though is how good really is this team? Is this a team that should be expected to not only make the playoffs, but make it to the World Series? The main question is this a good team or is this a lucky team? I heard this topic debated on the Dallas Morning News Ballzy Podcast with Evan Grant, Kevin Sherington, and Barry Horn and they were discussing this with MLB.com writer Richard Justice. I thought I would give my thoughts about it.

The Rangers are maybe a little bit lucky in that in some situations they have been able to benefit from mistakes other teams have made. I think back to Opening Day when they were facing Felix Hernandez and he was able to hold them to 1 hit, but they scored 3 runs due to a 3 walks, 2 errors, and a hit by Prince Fielder that ended up being the difference in a 3-2 win. They have had numerous games like that. They had a games in May that they won 13-11 with a 7-run 8th inning. They won a game in June against the Astros 6-5 where Carlos Correa couldn’t turn what would have been an inning ending double play. Instead it allowed Roughned Odor to hit and he came up with the game-winning double off the wall. It just has been a magical season. This team as manager Jeff Bannister likes to say has a lot of heart and never ever quits on a game. That characteristic of a team should never be dismissed as a belief that they can succeed in any situation will help them when things get tight in the postseason.

The next question is can they translate this success in one-run games and come-from-behind victories into a postseason run. The team the Rangers will be compared to is the 2012 Baltimore Orioles. That Orioles team went 29-9 in one-run games and was 93-69 overall as they tied the Rangers for the wild card and then ended up winning the wild card game. They went on to a series against the Yankees and took that Yankees team to 5 games and lost the series. The Rangers will be between 30-40 wins in one-run games. Can they go farther than that Orioles and all the way to the World Series. There are a couple of things I worry about with this team. One is the rotation beyond Darvish and Hamels. Those two I do not worry about, but the next two I do have some uncertainties about. First, who are the next two going to be. The Rangers have 4 pitchers to choose from: Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Martin Perez, and A.J. Griffin. They each have their strengths and weaknesses. The problem is that they do not have a for sure next two pitchers to put in the rotation. It may depend on who they match up with to determine who starts game 3 and 4. The other thing I worry about is the bullpen. They have good to great pitchers down there, but they are inconsistent. Sam Dyson was strong on Monday, but walked the bases loaded on Sunday. Matt Bush normally is solid but he struggled with his control last night. They just do not have the lockdown bullpen like you have seen from teams like the Kansas City Royals or San Francisco Giants. It is a worry heading into October and it something that can sprout up and cost the Rangers a critical game and turn around an entire series.

So is this team lucky or good? In my opinion they are a little bit of both. Other teams do make mistakes, but it is up to the Rangers to capitalize on the mistake and make the most of the opportunity. Sometimes they do and sometimes they don’t. That is the main reason why they struggled in July and much of August is because the breaks stopped going their way. It does help though that this team is full of scrappers who will keep grinding till the 27th out is recorded. They follow the lead of Adrian Beltre. He is a leader who sets the tone in the clubhouse and on the field. He does not allow for players to not hustle and to not give it their all. This attitude and level of play is what has given the team chances in games that looked like they were lost. They also have the never ever quit attitude that manager Jeff Bannister has installed on this team and talked about since the day he was hired. Is it luck? Yes it is. Is it belief? Yes. Finally, is it skill? Absolutely it is. A team with players such as Carlos Beltran, Jonathan Lucroy, Beltre, Roughned Odor, and Elvis Andrus definitely has skill and veteran knowledge. That should not be dismissed or taken lightly.

The final story and tagline for this team has not been written yet though. The question will be definitively answered in October. If this team finishes with the best record in the AL and goes out in the first round then they were no doubt more lucky than good. If this team makes it to the ALCS or advances to the World Series then they were as good as we have thought they were. All of this to say that this is one of the many storylines surrounding this team and will continue to be as the calendar will move from September to October. In a time when our attention shifts to football the Rangers play over in Arlington and demand your attention as well. They have a team that plays hard, competes in every game, and insists that fan don’t leave until the game is officially over. As we start September the debate over whether this team is lucky or good will rage, but the team will just continue to go out and win baseball games and hopefully win it all in October.

Rangers-Jays ALDS Game 4 Preview

Posted on October 12, 2015 by colonelsportsnation

The Rangers lost last night 5-1 to extend this series to this afternoon’s game 4. They struggled with Estrada’s changeup all night and were not as sharp in the field as they needed to be. Martin Perez though pitched a … Continue reading →

Rangers Rebound Behind Fielder and the Kid

Posted on April 8, 2015 by colonelsportsnation

Kela congratulated by teammates after escaping 7th inning jam

The Rangers get that first win of the season and the first win for manager Jeff Bannister with clutch hitting from Prince Fielder and pitching from rookie Keone Kela. The final was 3-1 as Colby Lewis picked up his first win of the season. The story of the game though was Keone Kela. The rookie made the team after an outstanding Spring Training that saw him pitch 9.2 innings and 11 strikeouts and allowed a .167 Opponents Batting Average (OBA). Bannister thought so highly of him that he installed him as the team’s 7th inning guy. That for a guy that a year ago was pitching in Double-A for Frisco. There was a lot more pressure last night for Kela than I am sure he faced at all last year. Kela doesn’t wilt under pressure. He was a 12th round draft pick for the Rangers and worked his way up from there to being in the majors at age 21.

That takes us to last night. Colby Lewis had just went 6 innings, allowing only 1 run with 4 strikeouts, and 2 walks. He had kept the A’s off-balance off night and allowed the only run in his last inning as he was tiring. Kela was brought in for his first major league appearance in a big spot. Normally you see managers try to bring in rookies in low pressure situations so that they can get the nervousness out of the their system. Bannister showed enough trust in Kela though to not bring him in on Monday to get that first appearance out of the way. Kela came in and quickly allowed the first two batters to reach base. Billy Butler lined a single up the middle on an 0-2 pitch that Kela left up. Then he walked Ike Davis. So two runners on and no outs and only up two. Mike Maddux came to visit and Prince Fielder came up to him and according to Kela told him to, “man up and throw strikes”. After that he struck out Brett Lawrie with 3 curveballs. Stephen Vogt then lined a hard line drive single to Shin Shoo Choo in right field, and thankfully because Butler was the lead runner they had to hold him at 3rd. The crowd starts to get loud, pressure ratchets up as it looks like the bullpen might blow another lead, and Marcus Semien is coming to the plate. He works the count to 3-2 and on the 7th pitch he gets Semien to ground into a game-saving double play.

What a double-play turn by Elvis Andrus. I loved Kela’s reaction to that, he clearly was able to breath a sigh of relief after that play. He was struggling, he did not have any fastball command and had to rely on his changeup and curveball to get him out of the inning and he did. I think he is going to be a solid piece to the bullpen. If he can perform in that situation then I think he can handle any situation. He will be an interesting story to follow throughout the season. Tanner Scheppers is scheduled to be back next week and that means that Tolleson will slide into that 7th inning role, but I could see him and Kela splitting that role in order to keep both of them fresh. Having both of them also gives the bullpen needed depth.

After that Tolleson and Feliz were able to close the door on the victory and the Rangers now just need to get one of the next two to consider this series a success. The goal was a split and they are halfway there. Ross Detweiler will make his Rangers debut tonight against Scott Kazmir and Nick Martinez will throw on Thursday afternoon in the finale of the series against Kendall Graveman.

Other Notes from the Game

Prince Fielder is looking pretty solid thus far this season. He is actually looking like a good hitter and not just a pull-happy home run guy. From the Spring Training games I saw and the two games so far this year, he is hitting to the opposite field and driving it, and he is finding holes in the shift as well. He is also making solid contact with everything. Last night he provided the two biggest hits the bloop single to center that scored Roughned Odor for the first run of the season, and then solid line drive to Craig Gentry that skipped underneath his glove that scored both Martin and Andrus. If he can do that from the 3 spot the rest of the lineup will be fine.
Adrian Beltre celebrated his 36th birthday last night by putting on a show defensively. Colby Lewis was struggling in the first inning. Sam Fuld had beat out an infield single and then he walked Eric Sogard. That is when Beltre came to save the day. He caught a popup deep into foul territory and caught it over his shoulder with his back to the infield. Then he started a double play off the bat of Billy Butler to get out of the inning. He also made a great stop and throw to get Eric Sogard out in the 8th inning. Happy belated birthday to Adrian Beltre.
There was also a nice hit-and-run by Elvis Andrus and Leonys Martin that preceded Fielder’s rbi double in the 5th inning. Martin had reached on a line drive single to center. The A’s then tried to pick him off by pitching out on the first pitch because the scouting report on Martin says he tries to run on the first pitch. This time he didn’t. He left on the second pitch when the Rangers called the hit-and-run and Andrus was able to place it right where the shortstop was and the ball rolled into the outfield and Martin was able to go third on the hit.
Tonight’s game is at 9:05 p.m. and will be Ross Detweiler against Scott Kazmir. Go Rangers.

Where Have I Been

Posted on November 7, 2014 by colonelsportsnation

I know it has been a long time since I have posted anything. More than anything the constant losing just beat me down. I didn’t really have anything I wanted to say about what was going on. At times it was very hard to watch. Especially the losing streaks in June and July. I will say though that September was very encouraging for this team. They beat several teams that were playoff bound and the sweep in September helped to nearly keep the Oakland A’s out of the playoffs. Several players made positive impressions in the seasons final weeks.

Rougned Odor was one of these players. September was his best month. He had a .296 BA and .826 OPS, and had more hits and runs in September than any other month. It was clear as the season went along he got more comfortable. He has established himself in my mind as the 2nd baseman going forward. I know Profar is likely to be healthy come Spring Training, but they both have one season under their belt and in my mind Odor’s season was much better. He made better contact and was very solid defensively. He still needs to continue to get better. He profiles in my mind as a Dustin Pedroia type, a guy who gives maximum effort and his power is generated by his quick swing. I could certainly see him with his left-handed swing and the short porch there in Arlington going for 15-20 home runs when his body matures. Profar we really don’t know. He is coming off of a serious shoulder injury that kept him out all of 2014. He reportedly will be cleared to throw in January. That will still give him time to be ready for camp in March. I think being out all season puts him behind the 8 ball and not having the same level of success that Odor had last year will result in him being sent to Triple-A to start the year. If I was management and Odor is healthy to break camp, I would go with him and send Profar to Round Rock to get at-bats every day. That way he can get comfortable again playing in games. Then he will be ready if someone gets hurt or if you need a better utility player. I think it is more important to get him at-bats every day and be in the field on a daily basis as he works his way back from the shoulder injury.

Derek Holland was another player who came back from injury and looked like the player the Rangers have envisioned since he came to the majors in 2009. With the injury to Yu Darvish he came back and became the staff ace the team needed in September. He came in throwing strikes, being economical with his pitches, and lasting 7 or 8 innings every time out. In the past he would put up those performances but follow it up with performances where he could not get out of the 3rd or 4th inning. He looked as fresh as he has ever looked and gave fans something to look forward to in 2015. A Darvish-Holland one-two punch in the rotation is very formidable. Darvish is very overpowering and Holland is very economical. Those two are the reason I do not expect the Rangers to be major players in the free agent pitching market. There is no reason to overpay to get a James Shields or a Jon Lester to come here when you have Darvish and Holland in the top two spots. To get Shields would also require giving up the number 4 pick in the draft and they are not going to do that.

Now that we are talking about the rotation for next year lets talk about what I think the Rangers should do this offseason. Here is my list of objectives for Jon Daniels and his staff this offseason.

1) Decide who will be the top 4 of your rotation. Darvish and Holland will be one-two, but who else will be in the rotation? I don’t mind a competition for the number 5 spot, but having spots 3 and 4 open will not be good for next years team. I would try hard to bring back Colby Lewis. He is a proven veteran that showed the variety of injuries he suffered from in 2012 and 2013 would not end his career. He is another that got better as the season went along. In April and May he could not get back the 5.2 innings mark, but from July 31st to the end of the season he averaged 7 innings per start. That includes two complete games and one of them being a shutout. Next years team needs that veteran presence and leadership in the rotation. I wouldn’t pay outrageously for him, but I would bring him back. I think you offer a 1 year contract with a easily reached option like 130-150 innings for a second year and make the contract worth about 3 or 4 million and the option year for about 5 or 6 million. I think he wants to come back, but he also wants to test the market while healthy for the first time since coming back from Japan. In the end though the Rangers lack of depth in the rotation and his ties to the area will bring him back for 2015 and possibly 2016. Second, go ahead and make Nick Tepesch your number 4 starter. He has been there for two years now and has gotten better each season. He is a solid number 4 guy who gets ground balls and can provide innings. Then in Spring Training have a camp competition between Nick Martinez, Lisalverto Bonilla, Luke Jackson, and Chi-Chi Gonzalez for the number 5 spot. All of those guys are talented and ready for the opportunity. The good thing is there will be depth this year.

2) Get everyone healthy and have them remain healthy. Just getting back healthy players will cause them to be much better next season. I am expecting them to compete for the division title with the Angels next year. Next season Prince Fielder, Shin Shoo Choo, Jurickson Profar, Engel Beltre, Mitch Moreland, Tanner Scheppers, and Martin Perez after the All Star Break will certainly help this team. It will give them needed depth in their lineup, bullpen, and bench.

3) Stay on top of Elvis Andrus this offseason. Last offseason the story goes he didn’t do a throwing program and that caused his shoulder to be fatigued in Spring Training and him to miss game. He also came in to camp overweight and both of those things caused him to lose range defensively, steal less bases than ever before, and just overall not have as good of a season. In his exit interview he promised to get a couple of weeks rest and then get after and come into camp in better shape next year. For the Rangers to compete they need an Elvis that is dedicated and in the best shape of his life. He needs to be able to drive the balls into the gaps, cause havoc on the bases, and play gold-glove level defense. He cannot slack off this offseason like last year. He has to be the team leader the Rangers need him to be. 2015 will be year 7 of the Elvis experience and it needs to be the year he takes a step forward offensively and in his role in the clubhouse. Rangers management and coaching staff needs to be checking on Elvis wherever he is and make sure that he is ready for camp in February.

4) As far as a free agent target I have heard talk about Torii Hunter and Michael Morse. I would not mind either of those guys. Hunter might want to finally sign here, since he already lives in the Dallas area in the offseason and is near the end of his career. Hunter could be a good guy to slot into the number two hole in the lineup and he can still hit and he can still field. They are letting Alex Rios go and so they need someone to fill the right field spot and Hunter could certainly be that guy. Morse is a guy who can be a strong right-handed DH. You can platoon him with Mitch Moreland. Moreland can still spell Fielder at first base and play some in the outfield as well. Bringing Morse in gives you a stronger bench and a lineup that will hit for more power. They could also decide that they like Smolinski and put him in right field. He certainly impressed after he came back from injury and will get a look in Spring Training for a starting job.

I think that is it. For the most part just getting healthy will solve a lot of their problems. The Rangers this past season were like the 1997 Spurs that had one terrible season, ended up in the lottery, got the number one pick, and drafted Tim Duncan. The Rangers don’t need to blow it up and rebuild. What the end of the season proved is that they are not far away. The A’s went all in and came up short and will probably rebuild next season, the Mariners still have great pitching but no offense, and the Angels will still be really good. A healthy Rangers team with one or two tweaks will be back in the race in 2015 and with a new energetic manager in Jeff Bannister. I would not be surprised at all to see them back in the playoffs next season.

I will try to write more this offseason as stuff happens. I am still hopeful and still a big time baseball fan. I have been through the good times and the bad time and will never stop believing in my Rangers.