The Cost of Competing

DANIELS

 

In professional sports every team is seeking a window. A window that while open gives them a chance at winning their sports ultimate prize. It could be the Lombardi Trophy, Stanley Cup, World Series, or NBA Finals. General Managers spend their lifetimes trying to acquire enough talent to be able to open that window. Windows normally only stay open for a very short time.  Very few GM’s actually get to open that window. That is why when teams get there they normally overspend in order to maximize that window. They never want to admit that the window is closed or is closing. This takes me to the Rangers and the decisions the front office has made to try to keep the Rangers window open.

Jon Daniels has been the Rangers GM since October of 2005. He spent the first 5 years of his tenure rebuilding the Rangers from the ground up. He rebuilt through shrewd trades, under the radar signings, and through the draft. Instead of moves made to compete immediately he slowly started to acquire more and more talent. He brought in players like Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, and Yu Darvish. All along he said that he wanted to get the Rangers to a point where they could compete every season. He didn’t believe in a window of opportunity. The Rangers made it to back-to-back World Series in 2010-2011 and came within an out of winning the 2011 World Series. Since then the Rangers have gotten farther and farther away from making it back to the World Series. They lost a 5 game lead with 7 games remaining in 2012 and then lost the Wild Card playoff game to the Orioles. Then in 2013 in a season full of injuries they lost a one game playoff to the Tampa Bay Rays. This season just shy of Memorial Day they sit 7 games back of division leaders Oakland.

This takes me to the point of the article. In order to stay in contention teams have to make trades that normally they wouldn’t make. Jon Daniels has made several in-season trades and now this season they are seeing that once full minor league system drained by all that talent that was traded away. It started in 2011 with the Koji Uehara trade that sent Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter to the Orioles. It was a sound trade at the time because the Rangers needed bullpen help, but Uehara did not provide anything and was left off of the World Series roster in favor of Mark Lowe.  In 2012 there was the trade for Ryan Dempster that sent Kyle Hendricks and Christian Villanueva to the Chicago Cubs. The team needed a starter after Colby Lewis went down with an injury, Neftali Feliz had Tommy John, Roy Oswalt and Yu Darvish were not pitching well, and so they traded for Dempster. One thing we saw with Dempster is what we see with most NL pitchers who make the transition to the AL. They do not pitch as well. Dempster in his time here did go 7-3, but with a 5.09 ERA, and in September that ballooned to 5.68 ERA in the month.  The big problem now is that Kyle Hendricks has blossomed in the Cubs organization and is on the verge of being called up. Ryan Dempster is no longer in MLB and was not resigned after the season.

In 2013 they made another trade with the Cubs this time for Matt Garza. They gave up Neil Ramirez, C.J. Edwards, Justin Grimm and Mike Olt to complete the trade. That made sure they got him, but while here Garza continued to be the head case he has been throughout his career. He called people out on Twitter, his behavior was unpredictable on the mound, and his performance just wasn’t what the team thought they would get. He ended up 4-5 with a 4.38 ERA, and allowed 5.02 Runs per 9 innings. The Rangers needed to make this trade because Colby Lewis had not come back, Matt Harrison was out for the season, Nick Tepesch and Justin Grimm were not able to pick up the slack, and they needed a veteran to help them get back to the playoffs. It just did not work either as the Rangers season ended in game 163 to the Tampa Bay Rays. Then this past offseason Daniels really wanted to shake things up. He traded longtime Ranger Ian Kinsler to the Tigers for Prince Fielder, let Nelson Cruz go without a multi-year contract offer, traded fan favorite Craig Gentry to the A’s for Michael Choice, and signed Shin Shoo Choo. Only one of those has really worked out.

Having to trade prospects is the cost of competing. It is what general managers will call a necessary evil, because the here and now is more important than the future. Unfortunately, it doesn’t always work out for the team acquiring the veteran. That is what the Rangers have found out as they have had to trade numerous prospects in order to stay in contention. That is what makes a GM’s job very difficult, weighing the question of whether or not to make a trade, and the future consequences of making that trade. Every GM battles with that decision in the offseason and especially during the month of July. Jon Daniels I am sure did not make any of these trades lightly. He knew what could happen, but he wanted to give his team a chance at getting back to the playoffs. The problem has come this year as the team has faced numerous injuries and no longer has the depth to cover up those injuries. Here is a sobering thought, if none of those trades had been made, here is what the Rangers lineup would look like.

LF Shin Shoo Choo

2b Ian Kinsler

1b Chris Davis

3b Adrian Beltre/ Mike Olt

RF Alex Rios

DH Mitch Moreland/ Mike Olt

CF Leonys Martin

C Robinson Chirinos

SS Elvis Andrus

This is the downside of trying to keep the window open. Does it produce exciting pennant race baseball? Yes it does. Does it bring regret later? It does that as well. Every team that competes for a period of time goes through that and now is the Rangers time to go through it. It may lead to a couple of down seasons, but players like Joey Gallo, Luke Jackson, and Jorge Alfaro are just a year or two away from being ready to contribute. That will give the team the shot in the arm that it needs and the ability to compete for the World Series again.

Rangers Young Guns Continue to Struggle

perez

 

The last two games we have seen one of the questions marks heading into the season manifest itself in a negative way. That question was could the Rangers young starters be relied upon to help this team through these first two months of the season. This month we have seen that the answer is no. Going into opening day the Rangers had 4 young starters in the rotation: Tanner Scheppers, Martin Perez, Robbie Ross Jr., and Nick Martinez. For the first 3 weeks they were good to great. Perez was great to start the season. He started 4-0, and had back-to-back complete game shutouts. Since then, he is 0-3 with higher than a 12.0 ERA. Then yesterday it was revealed that he has been suffering from elbow inflammation and will have to go on the DL. Nick Tepesch will be called upon to replace him when he takes his start on Wednesday. Then you have Robbie Ross Jr. who has not had a good start since April 25th against the Mariners, when he went 6.0 innings only giving up 2 runs. Since then, he has allowed 17 runs in his last 15.1 innings pitched. Overall, he is 1-4 with a 5.04 ERA. Finally, you have Tanner Scheppers who got injured in April, but who may have lost his rotation spot regardless. Tanner could not stay out of the big inning. The Rangers were taking a chance when they entrusted these guys with the keys to the rotation, and so far it just hasn’t worked out.

Out of the 3 I imagine Martin Perez will continue getting chances to start. He has a track record of success as a starter. He pitched well in the second half last year and pitched well for most of April. I imagine throwing the back-to-back complete game shutouts is what caused the elbow injury to flare up. Since those starts he clearly has not been the same. Hopefully they will give Perez as much time as he needs to recover and that when he does come back he will be able to have the same success he had in April. As far as Scheppers and Ross I imagine that they will be back in the bullpen very soon. Washington may have to make a decision and switch roles for Nick Martinez and Robbie Ross Jr. Martinez is stretched out and can easily slide into the starter role. Ross has experience in the bullpen and will be able to pick it up very quickly. Something needs to change. I loved the move to bring up Odor and Sardinas, now it might be time to shake up the rotation. Insert both Tepesch and Martinez. They just need to survive until Derek Holland and now Martin Perez can come back. They need to stop this slide. They are now right at .500 and 4 games back of the A’s. Thankfully the A’s are not playing much better or the deficit would be larger. The Rangers will be starting a 3 game series this week in Houston. The offense is starting to come back around, now it is the rotation’s turn to start pitching better.

Tonight it will be Colby Lewis for the Rangers and Brad Peacock for the Astros. Last time out Colby pitched against the Rockies and gave up 7 runs in 3.1 innings. He became the third starting pitcher to get hit hard in that series. He will be looking for better success tonight against the Astros. Game time is at 7:10.

The Major Issues affecting the Rangers

The team celebrates Choo's walk to end the game.

The team celebrates Choo’s walk to end the game.

 

The Rangers lost again last night 12-1 to the Colorado Rockies to fall to 17-16 and 2 games back in the division. They have now lost 8 of their last 11 games and are clearly going in the wrong direction. This all comes after the run they went on in the middle of April till late April when they won 4 straight series to surge into first place in the division after sweeping the Oakland A’s. The question becomes what has changed from then to now? Why are they struggling so much? Finally, how do they get it turned around?

Lets start with what has changed from then to now. During that stretch of winning 4 straight series they were mainly relying on getting solid starting pitching, decent bullpen work, and timely hitting. They were not scoring a ton of runs, but they were scoring them at the right time. It was during that stretch also that the starting staff was pitching its best. Martin Perez had thrown those back-to-back shutouts, Robbie Ross was pitching well, Colby had just come back, and Yu was pitching deep into games and being very efficient. Since then though, the league has made adjustments to Perez and he has followed the shutout streak with 2 very underwhelming starts. He has given up 13 runs in his last 9.2 innings pitched. He hasn’t been able to pitch into the sixth in either start. He seems to be pitching the same, but not getting the same results. That is another thing, the starters as a whole are not lasting as deep into games as the teams needs them to. For example, in the A’s series last week in Texas neither Darvish or Perez were able to get through the 5th inning. It also doesn’t help that Colby and Matt seem to have pitch counts put on them. The two of them are both coming back from injuries that kept them out all of 2013, and so it makes sense that the team would be overly cautious in their first few starts. If they are going to do that, then guys like Darvish, Perez, and Ross have to pitch deeper into games. If they don’t it will put a lot more stress on an already thin bullpen. Alexi Ogando has already pitched in 18 of the Rangers 33 games. That is just asking for trouble. He is an arm injury waiting to happen if they keep using him at this rate.  The starters just have to pitch into the 6th and preferably the 7th inning.

Offensively, the lineup is just out of balance. Elvis has been in a slump that has lasted for the last couple of weeks and it has seen him drop in the order to number 9. That happening though has caused Ron Washington to have to experiment with who to hit in the number 2 spot. He has went with Josh Wilson, Dan Robertson, and Leonys Martin. None of them has seemed to work, but even if it did, the middle of the order has been struggling. Alex Rios is still putting up solid numbers, but Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre are hitting with little to no power. Beltre just got his first home run of the season last night and Fielder is still just hitting .233 with just 11 RBI’s. The bottom of the order is really not doing much especially with guys like Donnie Murphy, Josh Wilson, and JP Arencibia hitting down there. They also just are not getting the timely hits that they need. Last night there were several instances of getting runners on base and they couldn’t drive them in. To me it is inexplicable to play two games in Colorado and score only 3 runs. That is a place that with as big of an outfield as they have that they should have been able to score a few runs. Really the only player who seems to be doing his job at the plate is Shin Shoo Choo. He continues to get on base at a ridiculous .500 clip and his average is .370. In his role as a leadoff hitter he is doing his job, but no one else seems to be doing theirs. That is what is holding the offense back is everyone doing their part.

Now the question becomes how do they fix this? How do they get back to playing better baseball and winning games. It has to start with the starting pitcher. The starters must be able to pitch into the 6th or 7th innings. That will take the stress off an already overworked bullpen. Right now it seems the bullpen is running on fumes. Last night Washington even ran Mitch Moreland out there for an inning so he didn’t have to use anybody else in the game. Alexi Ogando will be more effective if he is not being called on to pitch every single day. The big help for the staff will be improved health. Derek Holland and Tanner Scheppers both should be back in the next few weeks. That will allow Robbie Ross and Tanner Scheppers to go back to the bullpen and provide some relief. Robbie I would imagine would take over being the long man and middle relief option and Scheppers would be the 8th inning guy. Then there is that guy Neftali Feliz who is sitting down there in Triple-A still trying to work his way back. He is dealing with soreness and general fatigue right now, but he should be back to pitching soon and hopefully will be option come June. That would provide some serious punch to their bullpen. Having all of those guys come back will certainly help the pitching staff. Colby Lewis and Matt Harrison need to have the shackles taken off of them. Lewis has shown to be as healthy as he has been since probably 2011. The Rangers just need to let him pitch deeper into games. He still has yet to pitch more than 5.2 innings in a game. That will be happening soon though for both of them and that will help the bullpen and the team out as well.

The offense needs Elvis Andrus. They need Andrus to spray line drives all over the field and cause havoc on the basepaths. They need his energy and enthusiasm for the game. The offense has been at their best when Choo and Andrus have been getting on and providing opportunities for Fielder, Beltre, and Rios. If Andrus can go back to just hitting the ball and move back up in the order that should provide a little bit of balance that the offense needs. Once again I say that the offense needs Prince Fielder to produce. They are paying him $24 million this season, and they brought him here to be the major run producer that the team lacked last season. So far he has not been able to be that guy.  This offense is just waiting for him to go on a prolonged streak and when he does it will make the whole lineup look better. Beltre will get better pitches to hit, and Alex Rios will see more runners on base as a result too. Health on offense will also help as well. Jurickson Profar is starting the process of coming back as he is now swinging a bat and throwing, so hopefully he will be back by the beginning of June. Geovanny Soto will be back too come June and so that will mean no more at-bats for Arencibia. Having those guys back will provide some punch to the bottom of the order and less key at-bats for guys like Donnie Murphy and Josh Wilson. The key though is getting Elvis back on track and having Fielder start hitting on a more consistent basis and for more power. If they do that and they get healthy the offense should be fine.

To wrap up, like I said before the season if they could survive these first two months and be at or above .500 they would be fine the rest of the season. That spurt we saw in the middle of April goes to show me that this team can play on that level. For a few days they had the best record in the AL, so they can be as good as any team in the AL. It is just a matter of balance and people doing their jobs. The starters must pitch deep into games, the bullpen must be able to hold onto leads, and the offense must provide timely hitting. In the lineup everyone needs to do their job. Right now they are not doing that and so the team just needs to survive this stretch and hopefully get it turned around starting tonight at home against Colorado in a weird home and home series. Tonight starts a 5 game homestand as it will be Colby Lewis against Jorge De La Rosa. Lewis needs to continue to build off of the success that he had in his last start against the Angels. Note to Colby, don’t give Troy Tulowitzki anything to hit. The guy is a beast right now. Game time is at 7:05 tonight.

Rangers End Losing Streak

Colby throwing last night against the Angels

Colby throwing last night against the Angels

An MLB season is full of peaks and valleys. Every team goes has them. The difference between the good and bad teams is that the good teams are able to stay on their peaks longer and able to not be stay too long in the valley. The Rangers this past week have been in the valley. They lost two winnable games last weekend in Seattle and then got obliterated in 3 games at home against Oakland. Heading into this series they had lost 5 of their last 6 games to fall 3 games back in the division. The whole team was struggling. The pitching was very poor in Oakland and the hitting was not much better. They had not hit a single home run in their last 6 games. Fortunately they had a day off on Thursday to get their heads straight. Last night they began a 3 game series against division rival Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. It was Colby Lewis against Hector Santiago. In this game the Rangers would be counting on Lewis to help end this losing streak and he delivered.

The key to getting this win though would be for the offense to start coming through, specifically Elvis Andrus and the middle of the order. Elvis was in the middle of a 3-36 slump and so yesterday he had a 1-on-1 meeting with Ron Washington to see where his head was at. Washington said that the meeting was about Elvis’ energy or lack thereof, “He hasn’t been playing with that energy lately, and I think he’s accepted that energy is a part of it. I think he knows we’ve been hurting, and he may be trying to do too much.” The thinking is that when Adrian Beltre went down he tried to be more of a run producer rather than a guy who creates havoc on the bases and tries to score runs. That has led to him hitting way too many ground balls. His ground ball percentage is 89.4 and that leads the major leagues. Washington is trying to get him back to driving the ball to the opposite field and being the spark plug of the offense. That is the game inside the game that was going on last night. The meeting seemed to help as Elvis as he did have an RBI single in the 7th inning. It will be something to watch though over the next few days to see if Elvis can continue to break out of that slump.

Colby Lewis though was the main story. He continues to work his way back from his hip injury that kept him out all last season. Last night was his 4th start and with each start he is looking better and better. He showed a greater command of his fastball last night as well as velocity, and better control of his breaking pitches. That was clearly shown by how many swings and misses he was getting. The Angels were late all night on his sneaky fastball and were not expecting the sharp break from his curveball. There were some things he still needs to work on though and that is holding runners on. Twice in last night’s game after getting a runner on first base the Angels stole second. They were able to get great jumps due to Colby’s deliberate delivery. After the game Colby said that was by design, “I was already 0-and-1 both times and the batter ended up taking the fastball to get me to 0-and-2.I thought my job at that point was just to focus on the hitter at the plate.” Overall though it was another step forward. He ended up pitching 5.2 innings, allowing 2 runs, striking out 6, and walking one. The only reason he did not pitch deeper into the game was Washington felt like he wanted to go lefty-lefty with a one run lead and be able to hold the runner on first base. The Rangers were able to get out of the 6th and then eventually they won 5-2 to break their 4 game losing streak.

The other story of the game was the offense coming through. For the first 5 innings it looked like a repeat of what we saw in Oakland. It was a lot of swinging early in counts and weak popups. That changed in the 6th inning when Shin Shoo Choo hit one out of in deep center field past a jumping Mike Trout. Then 4 batters late after a Prince Fielder infield single, yes I said a Prince Fielder infield single, Alex Rios yanked one out to left center field to give the Rangers a 1-run lead. The Rangers tacked two more on in the 7th with a Choo single and an Andrus fielder’s choice. Choo was getting things done last night, he went 3-4 with 2 RBI’s, and a run scored in the game. He was taken out of the game last night in the bottom of the 7th with renewed ankle soreness. It is the same ankle that has been bothering him for about 10 days now. He is day-to-day at this point and might play in today’s game. Last night was his first game back in the field since the injury and so I am sure that they are just being cautious with him.

It was a good win and one that the Rangers needed. There will be other valleys during this season, but they responded to this one with perseverance. They just kept doing what they do and eventually it worked out. Today it will be Matt Harrison in his second start of the season going up against Garrett Richards. Harrison will be trying to continue the success he had against Seattle on Sunday. In that start he pitched 6 innings and allowed only two runs. He looked like the Matt Harrison from 2012 that won 18 games. If the Rangers can continue to get that they will be in good shape over the long run. The start time for tonight’s game is 8:05

Rangers Homestand Recap and Road Trip Preview

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  The Rangers just concluded a very succesful 10 game homestand. They went 7-3 in the homestand and won all three series. They took 2 of 3 from the Houston Astros, 3 of 4 from the Seattle Mariners, and 2 … Continue reading

Quick Thoughts about Tonight’s Game

Colby making his first start of the season

Colby making his first start of the season

 

The Rangers lose tonight 7-1 in the first game of this four game series against the Seattle Mariners. It was a game that also marked the return of Texas Rangers playoff hero Colby Lewis. It was his first start since August of 2012. Here are some quick thoughts I have about tonight’s game.

  1. The big story from this game as has been the big story from this season revolves around instant replay. First lets go back to last Monday when the Rangers faced the Red Sox. In the first inning there was a potential double play that Andrus caught and then lost on the transfer. The runner was ruled safe and Ron Washington reviewed it and it stood. Tonight in the 6th inning Pedro Figueroa was on the mound and a ball was hit back at him and he threw to JP Arencibia at home and JP looked to have caught it and lost it on the transfer. The runner was called out this time, but Lloyd McClendon challenged it and it was overturned and the runner was called safe to give the Mariners their 6th run of the game. Ron Washington immediately came out to argue and was immediately ejected from the game. The rule being enforced now says that you must come up cleanly with the ball on the transfer for the runner to be called out. Ron Washington when asked about the rule said, “I understand what the rule is saying, I just don’t agree with it”. He also went on to say that it is giving the runner the advantage and how something needs to be done about this. It clearly is a story not just for the Rangers but for baseball as a whole. Just like the NFL has had to redefine what constitutes a catch,  in baseball they are having to do the same thing with the catch and transfer rule. It is something that players and managers are going to have to learn and adjust to.
  2. Colby Lewis was very good tonight. Things though went south on him his third time through the order. It easily could have been that the Mariners had a read on him or he started to fatigue in his first MLB start of the season. That doesn’t take away how sharp he looked. He had great control of his fastball and his curve ball, and through 5 was able to keep the Mariners off-balance. It was in the 6th though that they started to make better contact. Grounders that found fielders the first 5 innings found holes in the 6th . It started with a Robinson Cano grounder that was just out of reach of Josh Wilson. It continued with a triple to left center that was just out of reach of Leonys Martin. Then, it was a single by Rangers killer Kyle Seager through a hole in the shift. After that it was 3-0 and Colby was taken out of the game. To me he looked like the Colby Lewis of 2010-2011. That Colby didn’t rely on overwhelming velocity or great stuff, he just knew how to pitch and how to get hitters out. Wash was also asked about Colby and after discussing his start said, ” Happy to have him back.” Aren’t we all. This rotation will be better with the presence of Colby Lewis.  It’s funny for so many years the Rangers relied on a great offense with decent pitching. Now they are a team with great pitching and decent hitting.
  3. The offense is in a big time slump right now. It was always known that Adrian Beltre is the most important person in the lineup and we are finding out why. Over the weekend without Beltre, Prince Fielder was walked 4 times and he still isn’t hitting or getting many pitches to hit. Rios was in a 1-16 slump that hopefully was broken with a 9th inning single tonight. Without both of those guys and with Beltre on the DL it is hard to sustain a big inning. Tonight for example they got the leadoff man on base 5 times and hit into 4 double plays right after. They also have not scored more than 1 run in an inning since last Tuesday against the Red Sox. That spans 53 innings or almost 6 full games. It just is not working as a unit. Choo and Andrus get on base a lot, but the middle can’t drive them in and the bottom of the order can’t get anything started or can’t sustain rallies. It just is something that needs work and I am sure these guys will put the work in, but really the onus falls on Fielder and Rios. They must start being that power threat in the middle of the order that the team needs.
  4. Seattle looked like a completely different team to me than the one we saw in 2013. This was my first time to see them this season and they looked a lot more poised and confident out there on the field. It still is really early, we are only 13 games into a 162 game season, but Seattle might have something there. They have good young pitching and lots of young position players who may be on the verge of figuring it out. They also have a good mixture of youth and veteran leadership. The Mariners might be able to make this a 4 team race this year. Still a long season though.

Tomorrow is game 2 as the Rangers will send Robbie Ross JR to the mound to face the Seattle Mariners and former Rangers prospect Blake Beavan. The game will start at 7:05 as the Rangers look to bounce back from tonight’s loss.

 

Game 8 Recap

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Last night the Rangers were trying to bounce back from a loss that saw them strand numerous players on base and score only one run against the Red Sox. The players knew that they had to have more timely hits … Continue reading

Game 3 Recap

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  Another day and another walk-off win for the Rangers. This one probably more incredible than the night before. Instead of a 2-run comeback this was a comeback from 3 runs down in the late innings. This game also showed … Continue reading

The Countdown is Over

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Today is the day. No more practices, no more exhibitions, and no more depressing injury reports. Today all of that is over. Today is Opening Day. Spring Training has seemed like it has lasted all winter, but now it is … Continue reading