The Texas Rangers won their 30th 1-run game on Tuesday night with a walk-off 2-run home run by Roughned Odor. That is the most in modern MLB history. Their record in the one-run games is 30-8 and if they maintain that winning percentage of .789 it would top what the Orioles did in 2012 when they went 29-9. It is remarkable what this team has done. The Rangers have 39 come from behind victories, 6 walk off wins, and the 30 wins in one-run games. They have a minuscule run differential of +22 which normally means that a team has a winning record, but not the best record in the league. The Rangers are 25 games over .500 for the best record in the American League. This is incredible when looking at the stats. The Blue Jays and Indians are in a virtual tie behind the Rangers, yet they have a run differential of +106 for the Blue Jays, and +94 for the Indians. This team has had to survive poor bullpen work early in the season, pitching injuries in the middle of the season, and at times a slumping lineup in August. Here we are though getting ready to head into September and the Rangers are 8.5 games up on the Astros, and 11.5 games up on the Mariners. They are in line with a strong September to also capture home-field advantage through the entire playoffs. The question that keeps going through my mind though is how good really is this team? Is this a team that should be expected to not only make the playoffs, but make it to the World Series? The main question is this a good team or is this a lucky team? I heard this topic debated on the Dallas Morning News Ballzy Podcast with Evan Grant, Kevin Sherington, and Barry Horn and they were discussing this with MLB.com writer Richard Justice. I thought I would give my thoughts about it.
The Rangers are maybe a little bit lucky in that in some situations they have been able to benefit from mistakes other teams have made. I think back to Opening Day when they were facing Felix Hernandez and he was able to hold them to 1 hit, but they scored 3 runs due to a 3 walks, 2 errors, and a hit by Prince Fielder that ended up being the difference in a 3-2 win. They have had numerous games like that. They had a games in May that they won 13-11 with a 7-run 8th inning. They won a game in June against the Astros 6-5 where Carlos Correa couldn’t turn what would have been an inning ending double play. Instead it allowed Roughned Odor to hit and he came up with the game-winning double off the wall. It just has been a magical season. This team as manager Jeff Bannister likes to say has a lot of heart and never ever quits on a game. That characteristic of a team should never be dismissed as a belief that they can succeed in any situation will help them when things get tight in the postseason.
The next question is can they translate this success in one-run games and come-from-behind victories into a postseason run. The team the Rangers will be compared to is the 2012 Baltimore Orioles. That Orioles team went 29-9 in one-run games and was 93-69 overall as they tied the Rangers for the wild card and then ended up winning the wild card game. They went on to a series against the Yankees and took that Yankees team to 5 games and lost the series. The Rangers will be between 30-40 wins in one-run games. Can they go farther than that Orioles and all the way to the World Series. There are a couple of things I worry about with this team. One is the rotation beyond Darvish and Hamels. Those two I do not worry about, but the next two I do have some uncertainties about. First, who are the next two going to be. The Rangers have 4 pitchers to choose from: Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Martin Perez, and A.J. Griffin. They each have their strengths and weaknesses. The problem is that they do not have a for sure next two pitchers to put in the rotation. It may depend on who they match up with to determine who starts game 3 and 4. The other thing I worry about is the bullpen. They have good to great pitchers down there, but they are inconsistent. Sam Dyson was strong on Monday, but walked the bases loaded on Sunday. Matt Bush normally is solid but he struggled with his control last night. They just do not have the lockdown bullpen like you have seen from teams like the Kansas City Royals or San Francisco Giants. It is a worry heading into October and it something that can sprout up and cost the Rangers a critical game and turn around an entire series.
So is this team lucky or good? In my opinion they are a little bit of both. Other teams do make mistakes, but it is up to the Rangers to capitalize on the mistake and make the most of the opportunity. Sometimes they do and sometimes they don’t. That is the main reason why they struggled in July and much of August is because the breaks stopped going their way. It does help though that this team is full of scrappers who will keep grinding till the 27th out is recorded. They follow the lead of Adrian Beltre. He is a leader who sets the tone in the clubhouse and on the field. He does not allow for players to not hustle and to not give it their all. This attitude and level of play is what has given the team chances in games that looked like they were lost. They also have the never ever quit attitude that manager Jeff Bannister has installed on this team and talked about since the day he was hired. Is it luck? Yes it is. Is it belief? Yes. Finally, is it skill? Absolutely it is. A team with players such as Carlos Beltran, Jonathan Lucroy, Beltre, Roughned Odor, and Elvis Andrus definitely has skill and veteran knowledge. That should not be dismissed or taken lightly.
The final story and tagline for this team has not been written yet though. The question will be definitively answered in October. If this team finishes with the best record in the AL and goes out in the first round then they were no doubt more lucky than good. If this team makes it to the ALCS or advances to the World Series then they were as good as we have thought they were. All of this to say that this is one of the many storylines surrounding this team and will continue to be as the calendar will move from September to October. In a time when our attention shifts to football the Rangers play over in Arlington and demand your attention as well. They have a team that plays hard, competes in every game, and insists that fan don’t leave until the game is officially over. As we start September the debate over whether this team is lucky or good will rage, but the team will just continue to go out and win baseball games and hopefully win it all in October.
