Martin Perez has been in his career the most revered prospect by Texas Rangers fans and the most reviled pitchers in the starting rotation. He is very polarizing as when he is good the fans love him and when he is not so good the fans hate him. There is no in-between and no margin of error given to him. He has so much skill, but oftentimes gets lost mentally. He will lose focus due to an unexpected walk he gives up or an error that happens behind him. He gives up big innings at times when he seems to be pitching well.  He just is not as good as the fans expect and as good as his skill level says he should be. Perez is a mystery start-to-start of what you are going to get, and the question has to be raised come the playoffs can he counted on to pitch in a hostile road environment in a pivotal game 3 or 4?

How did we get to this point from Perez being a top prospect with potential to become the next Johan Santana to a guy that now can’t miss bats consistently, struggles with control at times, and loses focuses often? In my opinion it comes down to trust in his stuff. He had one of the best changeups in all of minor league baseball from the time he signed in 2007 to when he made his debut in 2012. He used that changeup often in 2012 and 2013 and was able to get out of jams and get key strikeouts. It was his go-to out pitch. It was so good that hitters knew it was coming and still struggled to hit it. He continued to refine his arsenal and came in 2014 looking like the second best pitcher on the staff. He threw back-to-back complete game shutouts in April and look primed to have a break out season. Then he blew his arm out and had to have Tommy John surgery. That put a halt on his career for the rest of 2014 and the first half of 2015. His was one of many injuries in what became a lost season not just for him, but for the organization as a whole. It was disappointing for him and for the fans as it would halt his development into the next staff ace that the team needed.

The question became from May 2014 to July 2015 what would Perez look like when he came back from the Tommy John surgery. He didn’t have overpowering stuff to begin with and he relied on pinpoint location of his fastball and changeup to keep hitters off-balance. It is said that location is the last thing to return to pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery. The ability to consistently locate pitches doesn’t really return until about two years after the surgery. Perez would have to find a way around that and his inconsistent results in the second half of 2015 looked about what would be expected from a pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery. He looked pretty terrible in his first few starts. It bottomed out with a start in late July when he was give a 5-0 lead against the New York Yankees at home and came back in the second and gave up 11 runs before recording a single out. He rebounded from that start though and came back and nearly threw a complete game shutout against the San Francisco Giants at home in his next start. He threw 8.1 innings of shutout baseball on just 80 pitches. He was removed in the 9th to save his arm manager Jeff Bannister said after that game. That was a definite turning point as he went on to have a good August. He went 2-1, and pitched at least 6 innings in 4 of his 5 starts and did not give up more than 3 earned runs in any of his 5 starts that month. It showed he was improving. His strikeout total was still relatively low as he was mainly pitching to contact and becoming more of a groundball pitcher. September and October were inconsistent as he was really good in 3 starts and so-so to bad in the rest of his starts. The season ended with the loss to the Blue Jays in an epic game 5, but Perez in his start in game 4 pitched okay. He pitched in and out of trouble through 5 innings and only gave up 2 runs. Then in the 6th he gave up a 3-run home run that pretty much ended the game. There is an argument to be made that Bannister should have removed him after 5 innings, but he did not and Tulowitzki hit the home run. Perez though pitched well considering he was still coming back from Tommy John.

The questions seemingly had been removed from Martin Perez as the Rangers headed in 2016. Perez would be two years removed from Tommy John, he would have a full offseason to recover, a full offseason to prepare, and a full offseason to build up arm strength heading into the 2016 campaign. The Rangers were hoping that he would grab a hold of that number 2 role on the staff until Yu Darvish came back from his own Tommy John surgery. It was thought after an inconsistent 2015 that he would be ready to reclaim the mantle as future ace of the staff. That has not been what has happened. He has been really jekyl and hyde as he has been great at home and terrible on the road. He has a 7-1 record and a 2.36 ERA at home with 46 strikeouts to 28 walks. He has been the complete opposite on the road. He is 1-8 with a 6.23 ERA on the road with 35 strikeouts to 36 walks. That includes this past Sunday against Tampa where he went 6 innings, giving up 6 runs, and striking out 5 and walking 3. He was burned by one big inning. He gave up 5 runs in the 4th and that was pretty much it as the Rangers lost 6-4. That continued a trend where Perez continues to get burned by big innings. Against Houston earlier this month he lost when he gave up a 4-run 3rd and the team lost 5-0, against the Angels on July 20th he lost a game where he gave up 4 runs in the 1st and the team lost 7-4, against the Cubs in Chicago he pitched very well, but then gave up a 5-run 6th in a game the Rangers lost 6-0, and in Boston he gave up 7 runs and 5 of those runs in the second inning in a game the Rangers lost 11-6. It is a disturbing trend. He only has 3 quality starts on the road this entire season. It is obviously a focus issue from what I have seen. At home he is able to battle through errors, walks, or bloop hits, but on the road he tends to let one mistake blossom into a hit or walk, and then a home run. Take yesterday for example against the Rays. Delino Deshields hits a 2-run home run to give the Rangers a 2-0 lead in the 3rd inning. Perez then comes out and needs a shutdown inning to give the team some momentum. He gets the first hitter to fly out, but then walks former Ranger Bobby Wilson and walks Matt Duffy and instead of facing Evan Longoria to start the inning he faces him in a crucial run scoring situation with two outs and gives up a long run scoring double to make it 2-1. He gets out of that inning, but then proceeds to come back in the 4th with a 2-1 lead and gives up 5 runs on 3 hits to start the inning, a sac bunt by Bobby Wilson, and a 3-run home run by Logan Forsythe to make it 6-2. After that though he pitched well and shut down the Rays in the 5th and the 6th. He just cannot stay away from the big innings on the road. Martin Perez has not been able to step forward and reclaim that mantle like the team was expecting from him this season. He has been better since Jonathan Lucroy arrived, but still struggles on the road. It has raised the question of whether or not he can be counted on to start game 3 or 4 on the road in a crucial ALDS,ALCS, or World Series game?

Manager Jeff Bannister will be faced with the question of how does he utilize his rotation in a playoff series to maximum effectiveness. Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels are his two best pitchers, but is it smart to start them together? Looking at the home/road splits for Perez should they make sure to start him at home as much as they can this postseason. My guess at the rotation if everybody is healthy is that it will be Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels, Martin Perez, and either Colby Lewis or Derek Holland. It is not going to be easy for Bannister to decide which order to put them in. If Jeff Bannister were to ask me and I don’t think he will, but I would go with Darvish game 1, Perez game 2, Cole Hamels game 3, and Colby Lewis game 4. I would have Derek Holland coming out of the bullpen as the long man. I just don’t know if I trust Perez to start a crucial game 3. Starting Perez game 2 gets him a start at home, and then sets Hamels up to be that guy to pitch a swing game 3 and a potential game 7. We have seen before with the Rangers and other playoff participants that one inning can be the difference between winning and losing a series. The Rangers just cannot take that chance with Perez. It may look to everyone that separating Darvish and Hamels would not appear to be smart, but it may give the team their best shot at advancing. I hope that Perez improves on the road these last two months, but at this point I don’t know if he will.