The Rangers lost last night 5-1 to extend this series to this afternoon’s game 4. They struggled with Estrada’s changeup all night and were not as sharp in the field as they needed to be. Martin Perez though pitched a decent game as he was into and out of trouble all night. Bannister left him in though for two more batters than he should have. He brought him back for the 6th and the first two reached and then Chi Chi was able to get two outs, but then gave up a back breaking 3-run home run to Troy Tulowitzki. That brings us to today as  it will be lefty Derek Holland going up against former Ranger and knuckleballer R.A. Dickey as the Rangers try to win the series and move on to the ALCS for the first time since 2011. Texas though does not have a good history of winning home games in the division series round. Last night’s loss put their home record at 1-8 in the division series round. That is all in the past though and has no meaning toward today’s game. Today’s game will be determined by the players on the field and if the Rangers can score more runs than the Blue Jays. In order to do that the Rangers will need these 4 things to happen.

Keys to Winning Game 4

1. Prince Fielder, Shin Soo Choo, and Mitch Moreland must contribute something today. They have 2 hits combined in the first three games of this series. The team is going to need more than that. They were able to rely on Andrus, Odor, Chirinos, and Alberto the first three games, but the middle of the order needs to come through today. Choo was the Rangers best hitter in the second half of the season, but has barely been able to get the ball out of the infield this series. Prince Fielder has been much the same way in that he is not making good contact on anything. It has been rare since the All Star break to see Choo have 4 bad games in a row. So I expect him to bounce back today and get a couple of hits and reach base due to a walk. Fielder is going to have to be patient and wait on the knuckleball. I don’t really know what to expect from him. I don’t know how to quantify this, but I do think not having Beltre in front of him or behind him is impacting the types of pitches he is seeing. He is not getting anything around the plate, but he is also swinging at the stuff that is not on the plate. He must be willing to take a walk if they are not going to throw him strikes.
2. With a knuckleballer on the mound they need to be aggressive in the running game. If Deshields, Andrus, and Odor get on base I would like to see them continue to force the action by trying to steal second or steal an extra base on a base hit. Force the action and make the Blue Jays have to make plays at the bases. That is what helped them be able to win games 1 and 2 is the speed at which Odor was playing compared to everyone else. Do that and maybe they can steal a run or two.
3. We need good Derek Holland today. Good Derek Holland routinely puts up 6-7 innings with only 1 or 2 runs allowed. What we saw for much of September though was bad Derek Holland. Bad Derek Holland shows little to no control, puts runners on base, and walks a thin line. We need good Derek Holland to show up today and I think he will. He is very competitive out there and has shown an ability to compete even with grade C stuff. Hopefully he will have his control and be able to keep the ball down. The pitching staff has done a great job keeping the Jays in the park this series mostly by being able to keep the ball low. The only times they have went yard is when Kela left one up in the strike zone to Bautista, Gonzalez hung one to Tulo, and Donaldson hit a good pitch out to dead center in game 2. He has to be able to control his fastball, his slider must have that bite, and his curveball needs to break down sharply instead of being flat.
4. Finally and this is going to be the key to every game as long as the Rangers play, score early and score often. The Rangers have had their most success when they have been able to get on the board first and be able to put pressure on the opposing team’s lineup. If they can put up a run or two early then the Jays hitter might start to press and swing at things they normally wouldn’t swing at. If they can get a lead hopefully Holland will be able to hold it and pass it off to the bullpen. The great thing about last night’s game was that Bannister did not have to use Keone Kela, Jake Diekman, and Sam Dyson. Each of those guys has had two days off and should be rested and ready to go today. I would not be surprised if the Rangers have a lead after 5 if Bannister just goes ahead and goes to the pen to get the final four innings. Diekman has shown that he can go 2 innings, Kela could go an inning plus, and Dyson can go an inning plus. Bannister could manage this game much like he did games 1 and 2.

Today’s game is at 3:05 on Fox Sports 1. It should be a great game and hopefully the Rangers can celebrate at the end of the day, but they never seem to make things easy. Who know we might be headed back to Toronto for a game 5 where it would likely be David Price vs Cole Hamels. If the Rangers can wrap it up today then Cole Hamels will pitch game 1 in the ALCS against either the Royals or Astros. I don’t know what is going to happen, but I do know that I am excited to watch and hopefully see this unexpected magic carpet ride of a season continue. Go Rangers!!!!!!!!!!