The crowd will be quite a bit smaller come next week

Today is March 19th. We are about 12 days away from opening day and about 10 days away from the Opening Day Roster being finalized. So far in this year’s camp there has a lot of competition and a lot of injuries that make it more difficult to decide who will make the trip East to Arlington for the start of the 2014 campaign. The main competitions have been for the last two spots in the rotation, the 4th outfield spot, and utility infielder. Those competitions have been going on in camp and in games every day now for the last month. After watching the games and looking at the data from these games here is my best guess as to what the opening day roster will look like.

Lets start with the pitching rotation. The first three spots in the rotation are pretty easy, Yu Darvish, Martin Perez, and Alexi Ogando. Darvish and Perez have been very steady this Spring, but Ogando has been inconsistent. Ogando has the experience and trust of Ron Washington and so at least at the start of the season I believe he will be in the rotation. When people start getting healthy that might change. The last two spots I believe will go to Tanner Scheppers, and Joe Saunders. Scheppers has been very good this Spring and has shown that he is ready to start. With everyone else faltering around him, he seems to be the last one standing. Saunders even though he came in late to camp, with his last appearance showed that he is nearly ready as well. I would have said Robbie Ross, but they need someone in that bullpen that can get outs and with Michael Kirkman likely not being on the team they will need another left handed reliever to join Neal Cotts out there. So Darvish, Perez, Ogando, Scheppers, and Saunders will be your starting 5. That will not be the 5 that stays in the rotation. Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis are expected to be fully ready come mid to late April. If Scheppers, Ogando, or Saunders don’t pitch well then they can insert Harrison or Lewis into their spots when they are ready.

Next the bullpen. I believe it will shake out like this. Joakim Soria will be the closer, Neftali Feliz will be the setup man, and then you will have Jason Frasor, Neal Cotts, Robbie Ross, Shawn Tolleson,  and Tommy Hanson makes the team as the long man. Early on this season the bullpen will be heavily relied on. Darvish and Perez are the only starters who can be counted on to give the Rangers 6 or 7 innings. So each person will likely get work and so it is important to choose the right 7 guys. Michael Kirkman, out of options, is not among those 6 guys. So the Rangers, I am sure will try to trade him or just release him. He cannot be counted on, and this April and even May Wash will need guys that he can count on to come in and get outs.

Now on to the offense. Lets start with the infield. The starting infield will be Geovanny Soto at catcher, Prince Fielder at first base, Jurickson Profar at 2nd base, Elvis Andrus at SS, and Adrian Beltre at 3b. The infield reserves will be Brent Lillibridge and Kevin Kouzmanoff in the infield, and JP Arencibia at catcher. I believe they will take two back-up infielders. I believe Lillibridge will be back-up middle infielder and Kouzmanoff will be the back-up corner infielder. Early on into camp I would have just said Lillibridge, but with Beltre injuring his quad last week and Moreland injuring his oblique last week as well, they have a need for a backup at 1st and 3rd. Kouzmanoff can play either position. Kevin Kouzmanoff who was highly rated in the minor leagues and was thought of as a great 3b prospect in the Padres organization is trying to revive his career after being in the minor leagues the last two years. So far in camp he has looked healthy and has played good defense at either corner infield spot. I believe the Rangers will bring him so that Beltre and Fielder don’t have to play the field everyday and thus risk injury early on in the season. Lillibridge has definitely earned his spot as utility infielder with improved defense and steady offense. Adam Rosales who was thought to have the job locked down just hasn’t performed near as well at the plate and so due to that, Lillibridge will get the spot and the plan ticket to Arlington.

Finally lets do the outfield. The starting outfield will be from left to right, Shin Shoo Choo in left field, Leonys Martin in center, and Alex Rios in right. The reserves will be Michael Choice and Engel Beltre. Choo and Rios are the ones with the big contracts and so you know that they will be there. Martin started last season as the opening day center fielder and played 147 games last season and so even though he has really struggled with the bat, Martin will be out there on opening day. As far as the reserves  Choice has certainly earned his spot and Beltre has as well with his steady spring. Choice so far in spring training has put up a line of .381 BA, 2 HR’s, 7 RBI’s, and a 1.052 OPS. He has been outstanding. Beltre is another guy who is out of options and hasn’t really gotten a full time shot. The Rangers won’t want to give him up for nothing and so he will make the team and whoever plays the best at the start of the season will stay with the team throughout the season.

I know I haven’t said who will DH, but Moreland will be the DH when healthy, but right now he is not healthy. After injuring his oblique muscle last week he is likely to start the season on the DL. The DH spot will likely be rotated around between Fielder,  A. Beltre, Choo, or Rios. Adrian Beltre, Choo, and Rios have all dealt with an injury this Spring. Beltre’s was a quad muscle strain that caused him to miss a couple of games. Choo is dealing with elbow soreness. Rios dealt with a strained intercostal muscle in his rib cage and a sore left toe that has kept him out of games. While all three are good enough to play, the Rangers I am sure will want to play it cautiously at least in April when the players are still getting use to playing full games. Once again here are my picks in list form for the 2014 Texas Rangers Opening Day Roster.

SP: Yu Darvish, Martin Perez, Alexi Ogando, Tanner Scheppers, and Joe Saunders

RP: Joakim Soria, Neftali Feliz, Jason Frasor, Neal Cotts, Robbie Ross, Shawn Tolleson, and Tommy Hanson

C: Geovanny Soto, JP Arencibia

1b: Prince Fielder

2b: Jurickson Profar

SS: Elvis Andrus

3b: Adrian Beltre

UIF: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Brent Lillibridge

OF:Shin Shoo Choo, Leonys Martin, Alex Rios, Michael Choice, Engel Beltre

Players on the DL: Matt Harrison, Colby Lewis, and Mitch Moreland.

That ladies and gentleman is your 2014 Texas Rangers.

Countdown to Opening Day: 11 Days