The biggest question for the Rangers this Spring Training will be their starting rotation. The question will be who will be their starting 5 once the season starts? It is a question that fans, writers, and bloggers like myself will be wondering till March 31st comes. It became the biggest question of Spring Training once Derek Holland tore up his knee back in January. The one thing we do know is that Yu Darvish, Martin Perez, and Alexi Ogando will comprise 3 of the spots if they can remain healthy through Spring Training. Matt Harrison, already having some issues with his back early in Spring, will be the fourth member of that rotation if his back and neck issues don’t continue to flare up. The fifth spot is wide open. The Rangers have several internal candidates and others they have brought in to compete for the spot. If 2013 taught us anything it is that you can never have too much depth. Today we are going to take a look at those candidates and break down their chances at winning the 5th spot in the rotation.

Internal Candidates

Nick Tepesch is 25 years old and was a member of the rotation last season. He had a roller coaster 2013. He performed just like you would expect a rookie to. Some starts showed that he had a lot of promise and some showed that he still had a lot to learn. His final numbers last season: 4-6, 4.84 ERA, 76/27 k/bb ratio, 1.37 WHIP, and .272 BAA. He wasn’t terrible by any means and if he won the 5th starter he would be better this season. The word coming out of camp this first week was that he has refined his changeup over the offseason. Last season he was mainly a fastball-curveball pitcher. If he can throw the changeup for strikes and get batters out in front of it then that will give him an improved shot at winning the job. The issue with him though is that he does have options left and so the Rangers may decide to send him down once the season starts and just call him up if someone gets hurt or proves ineffective. To win the job he would have to outpitch everyone and make it impossible for the Rangers to send him down. I give him a 15% shot at winning the job.

Tanner Scheppers was a lockdown reliever in 2013. He performed brilliantly in the 8th inning all year long. He was someone that Washington could call on in a tight game and he would deliver. Scheppers, who is 27 years old, has stretched out his arm this offseason in order to be able to compete for this 5th starter spot. His numbers last season were spectacular: 6-2, 1.88 ERA, 76 games (3rd in AL), 27 Holds (3rd in AL), .214 BAA, and 1.07 WHIP. He was great. The Rangers are giving him the same chance they gave Feliz back in 2012. He has multiple issues going against him in his battle for the 5th spot. First, staying healthy. He already has been scratched due to back spasms and is recovering from that. Second, he could be the Rangers closer. If Feliz proves to be ineffective and Joakim Soria does not pitch well enough then Washington could just hand it to Scheppers. He was certainly their best reliever not named Nathan so if it comes to that Washington will make Scheppers the closer. Washington is giving Scheppers a shot this Spring Training because of his potential and how he performed last season. In all likelihood though I see Scheppers being back in bullpen. He has performed well there and with there being questions in the rotation they may need a really strong bullpen to carry them to some wins early on in the season. I give Scheppers probably a 10% chance at winning the 5th spot in the rotation.

Robbie Ross is another guy who was in the bullpen last year and performed great in the first half and really struggled in the second half. He lost the ability to put hitters away and then he just seemingly lost his confidence. It didn’t help Ross that Neal Cotts was one of the best left-handed relievers in the league either. As the season went along Washington started to go to Cotts more and Ross less. Ross who could sense that the Rangers were losing faith in him after the season asked for a chance to be able to start. The Rangers needed to see that he had the committment to do what it takes to be in the starting rotation. So far he has done everything that is required of him. He is a guy that I am rooting for. I think he could be a really good starting pitcher. He has good velocity, great slider and curveball, and he is very competitive out there. I would love to see him win the spot, but I don’t know if he does. I think if he goes out there and pitches well the Rangers might send him to Round Rock and let him start there. He could be brought back up if he performs well and if there is an injury. He does have options left and the Rangers do have other left-handers in the bullpen. They can afford to be patient with Ross and let him develop as a starter. I give Ross a 10% chance at winning the 5th starter spot.

Colby Lewis is the guy who I think is the favorite to win the spot if he proves himself healthy. That is the biggest question mark with Lewis. He hasn’t pitched in a major league game since July 18th of 2012. Since then he has dealth with various ailments ranging from an elbow injury to a hip injury. He had to have a hip resurfacing surgery in the offseason, but early reports are that he is as healthy as he has been in the last few seasons. If that good health translates into good performance in actual games he will win the 5th starter spot. Everyone on the team is rooting for him. It may not be the same team that went to back-to-back World Series, but everyone knows about what he did for those teams. He was a postseason bulldog. He pitched his best in the biggest games. The Rangers really could use a pitcher like that this season in what promises to be one of the most interesting races in the AL West in the last several years. He has to stay healthy though, any relapse and the Rangers will move on to someone else. I give Lewis a 35 % chance at winning the job.

Offseason Pickups

Jose Contreras is one of those guys that teams pickup to see if they still have it. He is 43 years old and probably done if he doesn’t make it onto the roster. The Rangers figured with his history of postseason success they should give him a shot. At this point in his career though he seems to be nothing more than just a long-man. The Rangers are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. At his age that isn’t very likely. He has not even started a major league game since 2009. I think it will be interesting to see what he has left, but I don’t realistically see him winning the spot. I give him a 3% chance at winning the 5th starter spot.

Tommy Hanson is our final candidate for the spot. He was a guy that as soon as two years was thought to be a future ace of a rotation. The Atlanta Braves deemed him untouchable. He was their next great pitcher. Then all of a sudden he wasn’t. His performance dipped and the Braves traded him to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim last season. It was thought maybe a change of location would help him. It certainly did not. He continued his downward decline all they way to the minor leagues. One thing that did happen though is he tragically lost his brother. Hanson says that did impact his performance and was a reason for the inconsistency last season. He just was not in the right frame of mind last year. His velocity also dipped about 5 mph last year from 96-97 to 91-92 mph. He says he is in a better frame of mind this season, but if his velocity does not rise back close to where it was it will not matter. In my opinion he is the co-favorite for the 5th spot with Colby Lewis. He has to show it in games though. He absolutely has to out pitch Lewis. Lewis has history with the Rangers and all he has to do is show that he is healthy. Hanson on the other hand has to show that he is the better pitcher. Every time out he has to show that he can get hitters out and that he will be able to go deep into games. With his experience though and his potential I do give him a really good shot at winning the race. In my opinion Hanson has a 27% chance at winning the spot.

Those are the five guys I think have the best chance at winning the 5th spot in the rotation. The only thing left now is to see it play out in the actual Spring Training games. It will not be decided in workouts, but in games. Those games start this upcoming Thursday against the Royals.